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粒子群优化的门控循环单元网络漂流浮标轨迹预测

刘凇佐 王虔 李磊 李慧 余赟

刘凇佐, 王虔, 李磊, 李慧, 余赟. 粒子群优化的门控循环单元网络漂流浮标轨迹预测[J]. 电子与信息学报. doi: 10.11999/JEIT230945
引用本文: 刘凇佐, 王虔, 李磊, 李慧, 余赟. 粒子群优化的门控循环单元网络漂流浮标轨迹预测[J]. 电子与信息学报. doi: 10.11999/JEIT230945
LIU SongZuo, WANG Qian, LI Lei, LI Hui, YU Yun. Gated Recurrent Unit Network of Particle Swarm Optimization for Drifting Buoy Trajectory Prediction[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology. doi: 10.11999/JEIT230945
Citation: LIU SongZuo, WANG Qian, LI Lei, LI Hui, YU Yun. Gated Recurrent Unit Network of Particle Swarm Optimization for Drifting Buoy Trajectory Prediction[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology. doi: 10.11999/JEIT230945

粒子群优化的门控循环单元网络漂流浮标轨迹预测

doi: 10.11999/JEIT230945
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(61803115)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘凇佐:男,教授,研究方向为水下信息融合,漂流浮标轨迹预测技术,仿生通信与侦测技术

    王虔:女,硕士生,研究方向为漂流浮标轨迹预测技术

    李磊:男,讲师,研究方向为水下多源信息融合技术,水下被动声学监测关键技术

    李慧:女,副教授,研究方向为高精度导航定位技术及应用、卫星精密轨道及钟差预测技术及应用、智能导航技术及应用

    余赟:女,高工,研究方向为声纳信号处理,水下信息融合技术

    通讯作者:

    李慧 lihuiheu@hrbeu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: TN96

Gated Recurrent Unit Network of Particle Swarm Optimization for Drifting Buoy Trajectory Prediction

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (61803115)
  • 摘要: 该文针对漂流浮标的轨迹预测问题,提出一种基于深度学习框架的端对端预测模型。由于不同海域的水动力模型存在较大差异,针对海面漂流浮标的流体载荷计算也较为复杂。因此,该文根据漂流浮标历史轨迹形成的多维时间序列,提出更具有普适性的基于数据驱动的轨迹预测模型。该模型将粒子群优化算法(PSO)与门控循环单元(GRU)结合,使用PSO算法对GRU神经网络的超参数进行初始化,经过多次迁移迭代训练后获得最优漂流浮标轨迹预测模型。最后使用多个北大西洋真实漂流浮标轨迹数据进行验证,结果表明PSOGRU算法能够实现准确的漂流浮标轨迹预测。
  • 图  1  PSO寻优GRU网络超参数流程

    图  2  PSOGRU算法预测模型

    图  3  4只浮标552 h漂流轨迹

    图  4  7种模型下4只浮标72 h漂移轨迹预测对比

    图  5  4只浮标72 h平均位移误差与$ {k} $的关系

    图  6  4只浮标72 h最终位移误差与$ {k} $的关系

    表  1  4只漂流浮标轨迹预测的网络模型超参数最优解

    神经网络超参数 1号浮标 2号浮标 3号浮标 4号浮标
    初始化中间层神经元个数$\lambda $ 50 35 32 13
    初始学习率$\alpha $ 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  7种模型对4只漂流浮标72 h漂流轨迹预测的ADE结果(m)

    模型1号浮标2号浮标3号浮标4号浮标平均值
    卡尔曼滤波180.93506.72472.33332.75373.18
    无迹卡尔曼滤波99.51198.73169.62106.99143.71
    LSTM神经网络141.43495.79191.99140.63242.46
    GRU神经网络95.51434.04107.20135.18192.98
    Transformer网络100.24418.2883.22223.17185.42
    PSOLSTM网络模型136.95369.3588.98155.42187.68
    PSOGRU网络模型50.79152.2179.72101.8796.15
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  七种模型对四只漂流浮标72小时漂流轨迹预测的FDE结果(m)

    模型1号浮标2号浮标3号浮标4号浮标平均值
    卡尔曼滤波2 604.102 919.937 157.773 850.374 133.04
    无迹卡尔曼滤波723.831 456.092 844.72683.771 427.10
    LSTM神经网络2 844.001 659.311 280.712 409.212 048.31
    GRU神经网络2 433.241 283.961 443.722 045.371 801.58
    Transformer网络2 064.303 776.45929.653 594.532 591.23
    PSOLSTM网络模型2 122.791 477.551 124.071 269.571 498.50
    PSOGRU网络模型980.05791.39774.96807.41838.45
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  7种模型下的预测时间对比(s)

    模型1号浮标2号浮标3号浮标4号浮标平均预测时间
    卡尔曼滤波0.0170.0170.0160.0150.016
    无迹卡尔曼滤波0.0170.0170.0160.0150.016
    LSTM神经网络1 425.011 425.731 425.721 425.031 425.37
    GRU神经网络972.74969.91969.90974.18971.68
    Transformer网络834.44836.43846.26836.25838.35
    PSOLSTM网络模型929.43927.31927.30928.03928.02
    PSOGRU网络模型641.88636.21636.91641.19639.05
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  ADE(m)最值对应的预测时间k (h)

    1号浮标 2号浮标 3号浮标 4号浮标
    最大值 593.18 k = 71 1772.63 k = 53 1340.71 k =60 715.01 k =53
    最小值 88.17 k = 2 149.66 k = 1 90.23 k =1 83.15 k =2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  FDE (m)最值对应的预测时间k (h)

    1号浮标 2号浮标 3号浮标 4号浮标
    最大值 9 074.36 k =57 18 316.02 k =69 16 694.51 k =70 10 343.81 k =52
    最小值 399.34 k =2 174.82 k =27 257.29 k =25 807.41 k =1
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2023-08-31
  • 修回日期:  2024-05-13
  • 网络出版日期:  2024-05-22

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