基于EGARCH过程的电磁频谱占用状态波动特性分析
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1146.2012.00165
Electromagnetic Spectrum Occupancy State Volatility Analysis Based on EGARCH Process
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摘要: 针对传统频谱占用度自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型由于未考虑序列的条件二阶矩,导致无法准确描述频谱占用状态的非线性时变特性问题,该文提出一种基于指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)过程的频谱占用状态时间序列建模方法。首先通过对ARMA模型的剩余残差进行条件异方差性检验,表明频谱占用时间序列存在明显的时域波动集聚性;其次基于EGARCH过程构建频谱占用度时间序列模型以及对实测数据的分析,表明该模型相较ARMA模型对频谱占用度的拟合与预测精度更高;最后由EGARCH模型参数存在杠杆效应系数,表明频谱占用状态变化对电磁环境波动的影响具有非对称性。研究结果表明EGARCH模型能够量化反映频谱占用状态的复杂非线性时变过程。Abstract: In order to describe well the nonlinear time-varying characteristics of spectrum occupancy states which has not been related previously, a novel spectrum occupancy state time series modeling method based on Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity process (EGARCH) is proposed. Firstly, due to the variance of spectrum occupancy Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model through conditional heteroskedasticity test, it is demonstrated that spectrum occupancy time series has volatility clustering characteristics. Secondly, due to the fitting models analysis results based on EGARCH process and monitoring data, the accuracy of fitting and predicting is better than ARMA model. Thirdly, the leverage coefficients of EGARCH model demonstrate that the influence from spectrum occupancy to electromagnetic environment fluctuation is asymmetric. All above results show that EGARCH model quantifies the complicated nonlinear time varying process of spectrum occupancy.
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