Zero-day Virus Transmission Model and Stability Analysis
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摘要: 针对零日病毒特点和传播规律，该文研究了零日病毒传播模型及稳定性。首先，分析了零日病毒传播机理，在易感-感染-移除-易感(SIRS)病毒传播模型基础上，重新定义了感染状态节点，引入执行状态节点和毁损状态节点，建立了零日病毒传播的易感-初始感染-零日-毁损-移除(SIZDR)病毒传播动力学模型；其次，运用劳斯稳定性判据，分析了系统平衡点的局部稳定性，基本再生数
${R_0}$ 及其对病毒传播规模的影响。最后，仿真验证了模型局部稳定性，分析了节点感染率、节点度和节点毁损率等因素对零日病毒传播的影响。理论分析与仿真结果表明，该模型能客观反映零日病毒传播规律，零日病毒扩散规模与节点度、节点感染率正相关，与节点毁损率负相关，对已知病毒的针对性防控可有效提升对零日病毒的防御效果。Abstract: According to the characteristics and propagation law of zero-day virus, the propagation model and stability of zero-day virus are studied. Firstly, the mechanism of zero-day virus transmission is analyzed. Based on the Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Susceptible(SIRS) virus transmission model, the node of infection state is redefined, the node of execution state and the node of damage state are introduced, and the zero-day virus transmission Susceptible - Initial-state-of infection- Zero-day - Damaged – Recovery (SIZDR) dynamic model is established. Secondly, the local stability of the system equilibrium point, the basic regeneration number and its influence on the scale of virus transmission are analyzed by using Rous stability criterion. Finally, the local stability of the model is verified by simulation, and the influence of node infection rate, node degree and node damage rate on zero-day virus transmission is analyzed. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed model can objectively reflect the law of zero-day virus transmission, and the magnitude of zero-day virus spread is positively correlated with node degree and node infection rate, and negatively correlated with node damage rate. Targeted prevention and control of known viruses can effectively improve the defense effect against zero-day viruses.-
Key words:
- Zero-day attack /
- Virus propagation model /
- Stability
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