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基于多维时空的NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合模型的短时交通流预测

殷礼胜 高贺 魏帅康 孙双晨 何怡刚

殷礼胜, 高贺, 魏帅康, 孙双晨, 何怡刚. 基于多维时空的NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合模型的短时交通流预测[J]. 电子与信息学报, 2021, 43(4): 1035-1041. doi: 10.11999/JEIT200026
引用本文: 殷礼胜, 高贺, 魏帅康, 孙双晨, 何怡刚. 基于多维时空的NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合模型的短时交通流预测[J]. 电子与信息学报, 2021, 43(4): 1035-1041. doi: 10.11999/JEIT200026
Lisheng YIN, He GAO, Shuaikang WEI, Shuangchen SUN, Yigang HE. Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on NPCA-PSR-IGM (1,1) Combined Model of Multi-dimensional Space-time[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology, 2021, 43(4): 1035-1041. doi: 10.11999/JEIT200026
Citation: Lisheng YIN, He GAO, Shuaikang WEI, Shuangchen SUN, Yigang HE. Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on NPCA-PSR-IGM (1,1) Combined Model of Multi-dimensional Space-time[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology, 2021, 43(4): 1035-1041. doi: 10.11999/JEIT200026

基于多维时空的NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合模型的短时交通流预测

doi: 10.11999/JEIT200026
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(51577046, 61673153),教育部科学技术研究重大项目(313018),安徽省科技计划重点项目(1301022036)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    殷礼胜:男,1974年生,博士,副教授,研究方向为复杂系统建模、非线性时间序列预测、交通流预测等

    高贺:男,1993年生,硕士生,研究方向为交通流预测、智能控制系统

    魏帅康:男,1995年生,硕士生,研究方向为交通流预测、复杂系统建模

    孙双晨:男,1995年生,硕士生,研究方向为交通流预测、智能控制系统

    何怡刚:男,1966年生,博士,教授,研究方向为通信信道建模与检测、复杂电磁分析与建模等

    通讯作者:

    高贺 gaohe1104@163.com

  • 中图分类号: U491.1

Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on NPCA-PSR-IGM (1,1) Combined Model of Multi-dimensional Space-time

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (51577046, 61673153), The Key Grant Project of Chinese Ministry of Education (313018), Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Foundation of China (1301022036)
  • 摘要: 针对城市短时交通流序列非线性和混沌性的特点,为提高短时交通流的预测精度,该文提出一种基于多维时空的非线性主成分分析(NPCA)和相空间重构(PSR)的改进灰色(IGM(1,1))组合预测模型。首先,使用数据相关性的非线性主成分分析算法对多维交通流量序列进行时空降维,同时保留影响预测点的主要交通流量数据,从而提高建模的精确度;其次,利用多维时空交通流量序列相空间重构放大交通流量内部的细微特征,以使其内在规律得以充分展现,进一步提升预测精度;最后,结合背景值改进的灰色模型适应于线性、非线性以及所需数据少的特点,进行短时交通流预测。实验结果表明,NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合预测模型的平均相对误差相比NPCA-PSR-GM(1,1)组合预测模型减小3.12%,其标准偏差相对PCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合预测模型从15.7091下降到2.0589。同时与最新的预测模型相比,该组合预测模型也提高了预测精度,达到了较好的预测效果。
  • 图  1  芜湖路与徽州大道交叉口示意图

    图  2  观测点1的交通流量序列$\ln r - \ln C$关系图

    图  3  多维时空NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合预测模型

    图  4  基于多维混沌时空NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)组合预测算法流程图

    图  5  3种组合预测模型预测结果图

    图  6  本文组合预测模型与最新模型预测结果

    表  1  各观测点与预测点交通流量数据相关系数

    观测点序号123456
    $\rho $1.0000.8000.9190.6010.4540.312
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  观测点1的嵌入维数与关联维数

    嵌入维数关联维数嵌入维数关联维数
    10.0640.36
    20.0950.47
    30.2860.49
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  3种组合预测模型预测误差统计

    组合预测模型平均相对误差(%)标准偏差
    NPCA-PSR-GM(1,1)3.336.4336
    PCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)7.6515.7091
    文献[7]模型4.349.5833
    文献[8]模型0.694.0010
    NPCA-PSR-IGM(1,1)0.122.0589
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-01-05
  • 修回日期:  2020-08-22
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-09-17
  • 刊出日期:  2021-04-20

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