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基于知识图谱的城市轨道交通突发事件演化结果预测

朱广宇 张萌 裔扬

朱广宇, 张萌, 裔扬. 基于知识图谱的城市轨道交通突发事件演化结果预测[J]. 电子与信息学报, 2023, 45(3): 949-957. doi: 10.11999/JEIT211594
引用本文: 朱广宇, 张萌, 裔扬. 基于知识图谱的城市轨道交通突发事件演化结果预测[J]. 电子与信息学报, 2023, 45(3): 949-957. doi: 10.11999/JEIT211594
ZHU Guangyu, ZHANG Meng, YI Yang. Prediction of Evolution Results of Urban Rail Transit Emergencies Based on Knowledge Graph[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology, 2023, 45(3): 949-957. doi: 10.11999/JEIT211594
Citation: ZHU Guangyu, ZHANG Meng, YI Yang. Prediction of Evolution Results of Urban Rail Transit Emergencies Based on Knowledge Graph[J]. Journal of Electronics & Information Technology, 2023, 45(3): 949-957. doi: 10.11999/JEIT211594

基于知识图谱的城市轨道交通突发事件演化结果预测

doi: 10.11999/JEIT211594
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(61872037, 62132003, 62272036),中央高校基本科研业务费(2021YJS309)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    朱广宇:男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为交通运输智能自动化、交通运输大数据分析

    张萌:女,硕士生,研究方向为城市轨道交通安全评价与控制

    裔扬:男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为智能控制、随机控制和数据建模

    通讯作者:

    朱广宇 gyzhu@bjtu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: TP391; U298

Prediction of Evolution Results of Urban Rail Transit Emergencies Based on Knowledge Graph

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (61872037, 62132003, 62272036), The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2021YJS309)
  • 摘要: 准确预测突发事件的演化结果,对城市轨道交通系统制定应急方案、保障安全运营,具有重要的参考意义。目前突发事件演化结果预测方法智能化程度不高,过分依赖决策者主观设定的特征权重、检索模板,复杂、准确性低且应用性较弱。该文基于知识图谱(KG)和关系图卷积神经网络(R-GCN)模型提出一种城市轨道交通突发事件演化结果预测方法。首先,构建城市轨道交通突发事件知识图谱,将与事件相关的场景信息进行结构化处理;其次,基于关系图卷积神经网络模型构建城市轨道交通突发事件结果的预测模型;最后,利用城市轨道交通突发事件案例库进行验证。实验结果表明,所提预测方法具有较好的准确率、较强的普适性,可为轨道交通应急管理提供方法和技术支持。
  • 图  1  城轨突发事件案例知识图谱构建流程

    图  2  单个城轨突发事件案例知识图谱示例

    图  3  R-GCN模型节点更新示意图

    图  4  基于R-GCN的城轨突发事件结果预测方法

    图  5  城轨突发事件案例知识图谱示例(部分)

    图  6  去除“事故地点”因素后与原实验预测结果正确率的对比

    图  7  去除“事故类型”因素后与原实验预测结果正确率的对比

    表  1  城轨突发事件特征信息定义及描述

    特征信息描述
    事故原因人员因素、设备因素、管理因素、环境因素、其他
    事故地点区间正线、车站正线、车站内
    事故类型火灾、脱轨、停电、踩踏、自然灾害、相撞、恐怖袭击、设备故障、其他事故
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  城轨突发事件结果信息定义及描述

    结果信息描述
    交通影响停运(特长时间停运、长时间停运、暂时停运、短时停运)、延误(特长时间延误、长时间延误、
    暂时延误、短时延误)、运营秩序正常
    人员滞留情况将导致乘客滞留、未导致乘客滞留
    衍生灾害无衍生灾害、车站内踩踏、车站内火灾、隧道内毒气、隧道内火灾、隧道内浓烟、隧道内踩踏、车站内浓烟、
    列车相撞、车厢内浓烟、乘客滞留隧道、踩踏等
    事故等级重大事故、一般事故、险性事故、特大事故、大事故
    运营等级1,2,3,4,5
    轨道交通运营状态紧急运营状态、正常运营状态、非正常运营状态
    伤亡等级0,1,2,3,4,5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  城轨突发事件预测结果(%)

    结果信息正确率结果信息正确率
    交通影响20.83衍生灾害62.50
    人员滞留情况66.67运营等级45.83
    事故等级50.00轨道交通运营状态66.67
    伤亡等级45.83
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-29
  • 修回日期:  2022-04-11
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-17
  • 刊出日期:  2023-03-10

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